Actual divorce rates

posted 2 years ago in Christian
Post # 2
1333 posts
Bumble bee
  • Wedding: September 2014

I see this is in the Christian board, are you asking specifically about the religious aspect, or the stats in general? It’s interesting to see that people quote projections like they are measures of the present/recent past, and that that changes the numbers often quoted. Like the article says, the overall divorce rate is skewed by people who get married and divorced multiple times. Each past divorce ups the chances that the next marriage will fail (On a population level, I’m not trying to tell divorcees their marriages will fail.) First marriages, like the article states, have a higher success rate than the overall rate.

The church attendance stat reminds me of the cohabitation stat: people who don’t live together before marriage have a lower divorce rate. I would speculate it is not that cohabitation causes divorce, but that most people who don’t live together before marriage these days are very religious, and less likely to accept divorce, just like regular church attenders. But these stats don’t necessarily mean religious people’s marriages are happier than less religious people’s marriages, just that there is less divorce. On the one hand, that can be good if people are more patient and persistent at working through problems in their marriages. On the other hand, I personally believe people should stay in unhappy marriages for life if their issues cannot be worked out over a few years. Of course, the stat also doesn’t prove that religious people’s marriages aren’t happier. That could be a cause of the lower divorce rate as well. Anyway, that is my speculation about that stat, I’m sure others on the board will believe there is more of a causative effect of faith in marriage. Both are interpretations that cannot be proven or disproven.

But stats are not individual destiny. My relationship has a lot of aspects that raise our statistical chances of success: advanced degrees, wealth, we’re both around 30, it’s the first marriage for both of us, both sets of our parents are still together. We also have aspects that lower our statistical chances: living together before marriage & being of different ethnicities. But in our relationship, I think both things that correlate with lower chances of success are things that have made our relationship much stronger than it would be otherwise.

Statistics are only “true” about populations, not individuals. And they only show correlation, not causation. But I do think they can be fascinating. I look forward to this discussion.

Post # 3
7030 posts
Busy Beekeeper
  • Wedding: November 1999

MrsWoods47:  I’ve no idea what to think, because the author hasn’t quoted her sources so I’ve got no way to check them.

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