# (Closed) Guest List Forecasting: How does it work?

posted 10 years ago in Beehive
Post # 3
Member
64 posts
Worker bee
• Wedding: October 2007

I’ve always heard that about 20% of the invited guests wouldn’t come, so I based things on that calculation.

200 guests invited – 20% (40 people)= 160 will come.

I think we will have more than that though now that RSVPs are rolling in, so you might want to estimate about 15% or so not coming.

Sorry, have never heard of a program that figures that stuff out for you…good luck!

Post # 4
Member
20 posts
Newbee
• Wedding: September 2007

Here’s what we did:

In excel, we put everyone’s name in their own cell, in their own row.

Next to their name, we put their likelyhood of coming as a percentage.

John  .2

Paul  1

Ringo .5

George .5

Then we totaled the likelihoods and came up with our guest estimate.

So we were 100% certain Paul would make it, 20% for John and George and Ringo were 50% each.  So we have an estimated attendance of 2.2

Make sense?

Post # 6
Member
84 posts
Worker bee
• Wedding: October 2007 - Ceremony at a cement and stained glass cathedral and reception at a boutique hotel ballroom

I would concur that our decline rate was 20% with about 85-90% of our guests from in-town. I’d say if you over invite by 15%, you should be pretty safe.

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