You cannot predict the Hurricanes… but do watch the weather, because they will track storms in the Caribbean.
National Hurricane Center = http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
The Weather Phenomena in the Caribbean Region is grouped into 17 Levels on the Beaufort Scale running from a Mild Tropical Depression thru to a Category 5 Hurricane.
0-6 Tropical Depression = 7 Tropical Depression / Tropical Storm = 32 to 38 MPH or 52 to 61 KPH
8-9 Tropical Storm = 39 to 54 MPH or 63 to 87 KPH
10 Tropical Storm = 55 to 63 MPH or 89 to 102 KPH
11 Category 1 Hurricane = 64 to 72 MPH or 104 to 117 KPH
12 Category 1 Hurricane = 74 to 83 MPH or 119 to 133 KPH
13 Category 2 Hurricane = 84 to 98 MPH or 135 to 157 KPH
14 Category 2 Hurricane = 99 to 102 MPH or 159 to 165 KPH
15 Category 3 Hurricane = 100 to 122 MPH or 170 to 196 KPH
16 Category 3 Hurricane = 123 to 131 MPH or 198 to 211 KPH
17 Category 4 Hurricane = 132 to 155 MPH or 213 to 250 KPH
17+ Category 5 Hurricane = >157 MPH or >252 KPH
For more info about Hurricanes etc see Wikipedia = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone
St Lucia is a fairly far eastern island (only exceeded by Barbados) so “generally speaking” anything that comes thru this region is going to be at a lower magnitude than anything that has had the whole Caribbean Sea to cross and pick up power from the Hot Air & Hot Water.
Statistically, St Lucia therefore doesn’t see many direct hits from Hurricanes (Direct Hits happened in 1980 with Hurricane Allen and again in 2010 wiith Hurricane Tomas). But they can certainly be affected / sustain damage from both Tropical Depressions & Storms… or the fall-out (wind & rain, storm surge) of Hurricanes if they are in the general region.
That is the GOOD NEWS…
The BAD NEWS (or facts of life)…
Is St Lucia is a volcanic island, which means that the there is a thin soil coverage atop volcanic rock… the biggest issue in St Lucia therefore is flooding and mudslides. As well it is not what one would call a “first world country”… so in the event of an emergency or natural disaster all services will be in jeopardy.
THESE are the reasons why people tend to avoid Caribbean Islands during Hurricane Season… it isn’t just the weather itself, it is the fact that things are not handled in the same fashion as they are in a more progressive country. In the event of bad weather, systems will be taxed to the max… and things we take for granted here may not be available readily… food, water, sanitation, medical services… or even evacuation.
Hope this helps,
PS… St Lucia is currently riding out Tropical Storm Isaac… you can check out the NHC link that I posted for more info… or GOOGLE for the latest NEWS reports