(Closed) Just for fun: Hypothetical

posted 5 years ago in The Lounge
  • poll: Which would you rather?
    $1,000,000 guaranteed : (80 votes)
    80 %
    $5,000,000 at 75% chance : (14 votes)
    14 %
    $50,000,000 at 50% chance : (6 votes)
    6 %
  • Post # 3
    Member
    25 posts
    Newbee
    • Wedding: November 2015

    any amount of money would be awesome!!!!!! wedding to save for

    Post # 4
    Member
    621 posts
    Busy bee
    • Wedding: November 2012

    guaranteed money! I would probably be kicking myself for the rest of my life if I chanced it and lost!

    Post # 5
    Hostess
    3000 posts
    Sugar bee
    • Wedding: April 2014

    I would probably do the 5 mill at 75%.  I’m a bit of a gambler and have great luck ๐Ÿ™‚

    Post # 6
    Member
    4372 posts
    Honey bee

    The expected values are 1 million, 3.75 million, and 25 million, respectively. It’s a no brainer for me. 

     

    Post # 7
    Member
    291 posts
    Helper bee
    • Wedding: November 2014

    awesome post! I think 75% is pretty great chances. I would be willing to chance it bc of the larger sum ๐Ÿ™‚

    Post # 8
    Hostess
    2556 posts
    Sugar bee
    • Wedding: May 2014

    Go big or go home — $50,000,00 at 50% chance.  ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Post # 9
    Member
    1186 posts
    Bumble bee
    • Wedding: April 2012

    A cool million would go a very long way for us right now. I would definitely take it and run to the bank.

    Post # 10
    Member
    13101 posts
    Honey Beekeeper
    • Wedding: July 2010

    I’d probably (emotionally) want to take the $1,000,000 because DH and I are young enough that if we were able to invest a million now, we’d be in great shape when we want to retire with all of the compounding.

     

    But the logical/mathematical side of me would jump to the expected values of each situation (1 million, 3.75 million, and 25 million, respectively as a PP pointed out), and know that, based on expected value, the 50% chance at $50,000,000 is the best bet.

     

    Ultimately though, I see myself balancing the risk vs. reward (and my emotional versus logical thoughts) and going with the 75% shot at $5,000,000.

    Post # 11
    Member
    8473 posts
    Bumble Beekeeper
    • Wedding: July 2012

    To me, it’s all about guarantees!

    Post # 12
    Member
    601 posts
    Busy bee
    • Wedding: March 2013

    I would take the guaranteed money a million dollars is a lot of money and with two kids I could do a lot with that in the small town I live in with money left over for there college education and things.

    Post # 13
    Member
    9143 posts
    Buzzing Beekeeper
    • Wedding: November 2013 - St. Augustine Beach, FL

    A guaranteed million could pay off my loans and buy a new car as well as a nice honeymoon and I would have plenty left over to put back in the bank for the proverbial “rainy” day.

    Post # 14
    Member
    1459 posts
    Bumble bee
    • Wedding: July 2017 - Bristol zoo

    Bird in the hand = two in the bush XD

     

    Plus I’d totes just reinvest that 1 mill and work it up to 5 mill XD

    Post # 16
    Member
    772 posts
    Busy bee
    • Wedding: April 2015

    Guaranteed million would be lovely, I wouldn’t want to take the risk on the other two even though 75% is high! £1m would buy a house, pay off student loans and have a lovely wedding, potentially with some change!

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