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please help me come up with a formula to estimate what percent will rsvp yes!

posted 1 year ago in Reception
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    1.
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    Sugar bee
    joy2011    October 22, 2011   NE Ohio

    based on distance to travel?

    I think this would be useful to lots of brides who are aiming for an estimate of actual attendance.

    In order to play this game, please include:

    - your total number of invited guests 

    and an estimated % of those who rsvp'ed yes who, to get to your wedding:

    - had to drive less than one hour

    - had to drive 1-3 hours 

    - had to drive more than 3 hours

    - had to get on a plane

     
    2.
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    Helper bee
    FutureMrs.Notch    June 4, 2011   St. Cloud, MN

    I don't know about all the stuff about how far they had to travel etc, but we invited 207 and only 132 are coming which was like a 37% decline rate....that seems high to me, I've heard more in the 20-25% decline rate Not sure if that helps, but that's what ours was.

     
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    Bee Keeper
    artbee    February 28, 2010  

    We invited 145, 95 RSVPed yes.

    -75% had to drive less then an hour, the rest had to get on a plane.

    But I also think it had to do with the day, it was on a Sunday. And only 30 people were invited to the ceremony, so a lot of OOT people weren't going to fly all the way here just for a dinner.

     
    4.
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    Sugar bee
    thewheelsonthebus    June 25, 2011  

    I have to say, I've been a wedding planner for years and it's ALWAYS different!  But... here is mine (estimating the responses we've yet to receive:

    • 202 Total Invites
    • 124 total yes
    • 51 less than an hour
    • 56 1-3 hours
    • 15 3+ hours
    • 2 flying in

     

     
    5.
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    Buzzing bee
    MaraBeth    December 3, 2011   Dallas, TX

    I posted the other day that I realized that more than half of our invites were going to out of state guests, so it is sort of reassuring to see people's numbers in similar situation. We still have 4 months until invites will go out, but we just sent our save the dates to something like 220.

    About 50 live within an hour, 50 within 3-4 hours. The rest are all out of state! I think we will probably end up with a fair amount of declines, especially because my parents are hosting another reception in their hometown (I doubt most of their guests would come to both!)

     
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    mwitter80    December 11, 2010   Connecticut

    So I had 20% of people not show. Right with the standard estimates. What's funny is, that the farther the guest got away the higher percentage that showed up. Although that represents less people.

    Total invites 132

    106 attended

    less than an hour 32 guests 68% attendance to invites

    1-3 hours 37 guests 82% attendance to invites

    3+ hours 22 - 91% attendance to invites

    flying in 15 - 93% attendance to invites

     

     
    7.
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    Sugar bee
    joy2011    October 22, 2011   NE Ohio

    @mwitter80:thanks so much! That is exactly what I was looking for! :-)

    any others?

     
    8.
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    Newbee
    MaryC140    October 1, 2011   Chicago, IL

    @joy2011: 

    thanks so much for posting - i've been wondering about this too - my fiance's familiy is all from out of state - but my HUGE family is pretty much all in state... we are inviting around 260 people and did not send a save the date, we plan to send out invitations on the early side (Mid July?) - any one else in a similar situation? no idea how many people to expect. 

    Also - what have you all experienced as far as inviting people with a +1 as a courtesy even when they're not in a relationship - do people usually bring a date or RSVP for just themselves????

     
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    Newbee
    MaryC140    October 1, 2011   Chicago, IL

    sorry posted twice and cant figure out how to delete! woops!

     
    9.
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    Sugar bee
    GreenEyedMoon    January 14, 2012   Dallas

    This would help us a bunch, too.  I believe over half our guest list will have to fly in, and about 25 of those would come in from other continents, so the whole passport thing throws another hoop into the obstacle course.  I would love to get a good idea of the numbers.

    I had one planner tell me that 25% attrition rate is normal, but it jumps to about 50% for out-of-town guests.  Or course, I don't know what her definition of out-of-town was...  Did she mean the people who would drive two or three hours?  Or did she mean the people flying in from out of state?  Or did she mean my foreign guests?  I *know* that the attrition rate is going to rise as people get further and further away, so I would love to know what to expect for my out-of-state guests.  I just kind of expect that almost none of my foreign guests will make it.

     
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    Busy bee
    Sking    October 8, 2011  

    The math nerd in me loves this thread. Sorry I don't have numbers yet for you, but I will be following.

    Although, there are a lot of factors that could also affect attendance:  Is it a dw for most people? If so, how desirable is the location? Time of year/season/holiday? Day/date of wedding (how popular, kids in or out of school)? Distribution of guest list (mostly family, mostly young 20-somethings, mostly couples w/ kids)?

    Not trying to poke holes, just giving you some text for your disclaimer and the fine print :)

     

     
    11.
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    Sugar bee
    joy2011    October 22, 2011   NE Ohio

    @Sking:yeah, I wish that I could get that kind of info, too! but, I suspect that would be asking a bit too much... and hey, btw, I *almost* shared your wedding date! (that was originally our first choice, then we changed it)

     
    12.
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    Sugar bee
    joy2011    October 22, 2011   NE Ohio

    @artbee:were the people who had to  get on a plane less likely to come than the people who didn't drive far? (of the 75% who had to drive less than an hour, was that the % of people you invited, or of whom ended up coming?)

     
    13.
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    Sugar bee
    joy2011    October 22, 2011   NE Ohio

    @thewheelsonthebus:thanks! but also, what were the numbers of people that you originally invited for each category? (that would give us more of a "what was the actual percentage yes for each category")

     
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    Buzzing
    Beekeeper
    bells    June 26, 2011  

    i think its different for each couple and depends how many of your guests are family versus friends and how many of them are old versus young. Family and older guests tend to make the effort to come regardless of distance. Friends and younger guests are more likely to rsvp no if they are far away.

     

     
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    Helper bee
    kjwinter    March 12, 2011  

    200 invited guests 

    170 RSVPed yes

    162 ended up attending

    of those 162 attending:

    39 had to drive less than one hour

    71 had to drive 1-3 hours 

    22 had to drive more than 3 hours

    30 had to get on a plane

     
    16.
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    Busy bee
    lampshade127    March 27   Houston

    We invited 187 people, including parents and siblings

    Of those that attended,

    38 were local (had to drive less than an hour)

    6 had to drive one to three hours

    37 had to drive more than three hours

    27 had to take a plane

    Most of those who didn't attend were out of state and would have had to take a plane. A lot of those same people had military conflicts or were deployed at the time. Only 2 of our in-town guests didn't RSVP "yes" and 4 invitees from 1-3 hours away couldn't make it.

     
    17.
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    Busy bee
    ms. rice crispy treat    August 14, 2011   Fort Collins, CO

    - your total number of invited guests: 96

    - had to drive less than one hour: 0

    - had to drive 1-3 hours: 32 people (of all invites)

    - had to drive more than 3 hours: 0

    - had to get on a plane: 64 people (of all invites)

     

    Final count: 63 people

    - had to drive 1-3 hours: 22 people

    - had to get on a plane: 41 people

     

     

     
    18.
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    Busy bee
    beatriz    August 2012  

    @joy2011:

    This Formula never fails

    Number of invited guest/2 = that is how many will show up

     

     

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