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I think your reasoning sounds dead on, especially for a destination wedding. Don't worry, I'm sure you'll get some 'yeses' soon!
We're at ~%60 for a wedding in our town, but most people must travel 2-6 hours to come to it. A destination wedding in September could have much lower than 60% I would think, kids are in school, economy is down, some places don't allow vacations during the school year (and some don't allow in the summer). I think there are a lot of variables to consider. I'm sure you'll get a bit of Yes's soon though! We are still getting in trickling RSVPs and we mailed ours out 6 weeks ago.
I usually send my "no" responses back right away because I know I can't come. If its yes, I usually need to check and make sure.
You're right in your thinking. These are people that know they can't swing it and they want to let you know in advance. Its tough to figure out if you can afford a trip so give it some time. I'm sure everyone would love to come, if only money weren't an issue. Knowing your family will be there is great.
Ive heard that the NOs and definitey YESs come first and then the rest will trickle in and right at the deadline they will all flood in. Im hoping this is true because so far we only know of 81 people that are coming and we invited over 200!! There are only 6 days left until our RSVP by date and its really annoying having to wait! You will get the YESs though so dont worry!!! We mailed our invitations a month ago and this is what we are dealing with now. SO annoying!
I think I am prepared for whatever the outcome is. If we only have 20 guests, I will be okay with that. A little bummed, but definitely okay.
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We sent out our invitations about a week ago and I just got my first round of responses back (four of them). They are ALL no.
Rationally, I realize these are people who opened up the invitation and realized right away they had something else going on that weekend or couldn't afford to go, so they sent it right back. I realize that the people who are still "deciding" whether or not they will go aren't going to respond as quickly as the "no" people. And the for-sure yes people are all family, and we know they are coming, so they will take their sweet time responding.
We invited about 110 people and we are hoping for 50-65. It's a destination wedding, and I was told to expect about 50% of the invitees to come. With family and the wedding party, we have 25 "for sure" coming.