Post # 1
So I noticed quite shockingly today that the 10 day forecast goes up through July 30th. My wedding is the 31st. Scary! The good news is ever day from the 26th through the 30th is mostly sunny with highs between 78 and 82. If I could get weather like that on the wedding day, I would be THRILLED. The bad news is, I highly doubt the accuracy of a forecast this far out.
So that got me thinking, at what point do you think the forecast has any realistic shot at being accurate? My guess would be only about 3-4 days out. But I’m curious as to what everyone else thinks.
Post # 3
I don’t really trust it until it’s about 3-4 days out.
Post # 4
I just saw that our forecast is for a mostly sunny day. I am still 5 days out, but I hope it is accurate! And, it will be a full moon. I usually trust it 3 days out.
Post # 5
I really never trust it. For the past few days it has said 50-60% chance of thunderstorms here and its been nothing but hot and sunny and gorgeous!! Also, sometimes while it is raining it will just say “cloudy” on the weather forecast!
Post # 6
It really depends on where you live. I’m in Washington DC, so I agree with clarebee — I don’t even trust them to get today right! They’ve been on about a month-long streak of predicting rain and then gradually changing it (when I check the hourly forecast, the allegedly rainy hours keep getting pushed back)!
Take a cue from your city. Are you usually able to trust them? If so, then it’s probably a safe bet…
Post # 7
Heheh…we’re date twins and I’m stalking the 10-day forecast too, although I don’t trust the accuracy. For my bridal shower, it said 20% chance of rain and switched to 40% the day before and absolutely poured all day. I’m hopeful that the advance forecast is so favorable for the last weekend of July, but I know the predictions may change multiple times between now and then. (Of concern are severe tropical storms in the Caribbean that could develop into the next named storm. Keep an eye on that…and keep your fingers crossed!)
Post # 8
I think it totally depends on where you’re at. My cousin lives in California and can trust the forcast several days in advance. I’m in Kansas, they struggle to get this afternoon’s forcast right. . .especially in regards to rain in the summer.
Post # 9
@greenleafmountain: DON’T LOOK at the 10-day forecast. It went from great to bad overnight. In fact, it’s now predicted to be the worst day of the next 10. But…I’ve heard that 10-day forecasts are only 40% accurate (ranking only slightly better than completely random predictions), so it’s best to STAY CALM. A bad forecast now could even be a good thing.
Post # 10
Saying not to look at the 10 day forecast is like telling a child not to eat their halloween candy when they get home from trick or treating….
I say just be sure to check multiple weather sources to get a complete picture of what the meterioligist are saying. weather.com weatherunderground.com you local news stations….
Even the day of, you can’t control the weather.. you just have to go with the flow.
Post # 11
Well for our area the forecast has actually gotten better from yesterday to today, but you all are right, I shouldn’t trust it. We’re in a mountainous area with lots of very small valleys, so it makes predicting the weather very difficult. Apparently there was a horrible storm in the next valley over that knocked out power and downed trees last night. Here, less the 5 miles away, it was perfectly clear and pleasant. We like to say in our town “if you don’t like the weather, walk a block in any direction and see if its better there.”
Post # 12
@greenleafmountain: that’s just funny. My SO went to Appalachian State in Boone, NC and it’s in a valley. The weather there was insane, you never knew what to expect.
I’ll keep my fingers crossed for you have awesome weather, I’m hoping for a mountain wedding one day and I know I’ll have to pray the weather in the valley I’m in wants to play nice on my wedding day!