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I've heard from a number of people that for in-town weddings, assume 10-15% will decline and for out-of-town weddings, 20-25%. However, this was before the economy started to go downhill, so I wouldn't be surprised with a ~30% decline rate for my out-of-town wedding.
@rebecca: yes....nearly all guests will have to travel to our wedding, including us! I was considering a higher percentage bc the distance and gas/plane ticket prices. Not sure if I'm on the right track though.
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I don't think you're far off. We had about 45% decline or not show after sending an RSVP indicating they would be there. About half of those were people we didn't expect to attend right from the start (mostly OOT friends and relatives we knew probably couldn't make it and a handful of others who were pregnant and expecting within a week of our wedding). We invited about 350 and had 192 actually show up.
I agree that it definitely depends on your ratio of local and out-of-town. Virtually all the local people will be attending, but I'd say two-thirds of out-of-town family and friends will be attending.
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I've always heard that 20% of the people you invite will not show up. From the weddings i've been to and been in, this seems like it's pretty close.
i would not count on it! haha. we planned on that 15-20% not coming...and we had 2 declines. TWO! we were overbooked and crowded all night.
We are having a small wedding (60 people) and we invited about 63 people.....only 2-3 are not coming! We will be right at 60, maybe 61. I was surprised. And we're getting married at a venue that is at least 1 hour away from where everyone lives....for some it's a little further...AND it's on a Friday which means most people have to take off a little early that day. I was pleasantly surprised at how many people ARE coming to our wedding
hmmm....my mom and dad will be coming about hour and 15 m. his parents and siblings about an hour and a half along with a few other family guests. About 70% of the guest list is several hours away.
so, would it be safe to consider that 15% of my "local" guests won't show up and about 35-40% of my OOT won't show up?
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I hope most of you are right and our decline rate is 20-30%! My FMIL keeps saying not to wish that, but if not, we are going to be crushed like sardines into the ballroom. We are inviting 364, but a lot of those are out-of-towners or famlies with children who might not attend. I really need less than 300 to be there. AHH! So stressful to think about.
With such a large head count, I would say 20-30% won't show. If you are only inviting 60 people, they tend to be people you socialize with and see on more of a daily basis, so they are more likely to come. So many at my wedding were cousins that I hadn't seen in years.
Can more people post the results from their weddings? As of today, our potential guest list is at 215 and the place I have just booked holds 160. I'm assuming we will be just fine 
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We invited 200, 140 came. But quite a few were cousins I hadn't heard from in a while, so I think thats why I'm at 70%.
The percentages we got are in this post:
http://www.weddingbee.com/2008/07/09/rsvps-by-the-numbers/
hope that helps!
We invited 172 and 123 came to the wedding, about 71% There were a few of the ones I thought were "guaranteed no's" who actually end up attending. it was a pleasant surprise.
We invited 230 and only 150 came!! The reason is that everyone had to travel at least an hour with 2/3 being an airplane ride away. my parents invited a lot of friends that don't know me (they moved to another state after I finished high school) and very few of those people came. I was surprised at the turnout but very happy with our final number (our venue held 200 so I was nervous inviting 230!)
@GetMarried -- we're at 18 no's and 56 yes's with 2 weeks left to respond. All of our in-town guests have responded already (they're coming), so the majority that's left is coming from out of town. Based on my numbers (definitely nothing definitive), I'm assuming 30% won't show, and if it's higher, YAY! (we SO over-invited!)
I have not calculated out our percentages yet (don't have all of our responses...even though we're past the date), but the economy has definitely prevented a lot of people from coming. Mostly people that would have to fly.
i'm having an in-town wedding pretty much next to our hometown and the majority of the guests invited are from the area (drive time would be like 10-15 mins). The out of towners we've invited would be friends who have moved away from the area but have family still so a place to stay and our respective extended families who have already confirmed plans to come. I have an invite list of 200 and am hoping for 175 guests. Should I be scaling down my invite list? I'm a little scared we're going to get yes' from almost everyone!!
thanx ladies!
seems like a tricky science...i'm going to stick with the 65% bc i believe that travel costs are going to be an issue with many of my OOT guest.
the local ppl will kind of a gamble
This is such a great question! I just figured out my headcount after confirming with invitees that didn't mail in the RSVPs.
Final Count: 144 Invited 122 Guests
can't wait to find out what our numbers are. we're having a very small wedding - inviting 63 guests for a space that will hold 55. we know several elderly relatives will not be able to make it, but have our fingers crossed for the rest. the vast majority of invites are family members - a few who said they weren't able to make it initially are now planning on it and the invites haven't even gone out yet!
I am stressed over this too. My mother claims that 50% is the average response these days and she is in charge of the pocket book. (I am still working out how best to handle her) I think she is saying this so she can invite a ton of her friends and feel like she is slighting anyone. So far, some of the people that she thought would not come at all are booking a flight and making it into a mini vacation! These are people she has not seen in over a decade but once held me as a baby. And all but 8 people invited are 2 plane flights away! Anyways...enough venting, I am trying to think about it like this-- All of these people want to be there to support us. And that is not a bad thing.
We made a spreadsheet of all of our guests and their individual liklihood (0-100%) of attending. You probably have a good hunch as to whether Uncle Bob will make the trek or if your college roomate can find a sitter for her 6 kids.
With our calculation, we're expecting about an 80% acceptance rate. Most of the declines so far have been courtesy invites for people we didn't expect to come.
Our "mostly" final numbers are in:
118 Yes
117 No
17 no response
So that is about 50% not showing up! I have a lot of family on the East Coast (our wedding is in So Cal), and my fh's father's side of the family is in India (about 20 of the invited).
I thought I would revive this board. Any new feedback on % of guests showing up? We are about to send our invites out in a few weeks so I'm curious if people are seeing a trend of "No's" with the economy the way it is today :(
Having an expensive destination wedding, I'm considering we'll probably see at least 30% no's...
Ours was travel for most guest (ie airplane travel or 2 day drive travel). We ended up with a 60% show rate.
I'm hoping for a lot of no's! We invited 454 and I'm hoping 300 or less actually attend. We just got our first RSVPs back and we're 50/50 at this point!
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I'm trying to make the final cuts to our guest list so that we can end up with roughly the amount of ppl we can afford.
What is a good percentage to go with? I've been toying with 65%-70% of the guest list actually coming to the wedding, but this was plucked out of thin air and not based on anything.....
TIA ladies!