(Closed) Article about divorce predictors

posted 8 years ago in Relationships
Post # 3
Member
7771 posts
Bumble Beekeeper
  • Wedding: July 2010

Those stats are ridiculous.  I do always wonder what the bees think of the divorce rate though, it is a reality…

Post # 4
Hostess
18643 posts
Honey Beekeeper
  • Wedding: June 2009

Huh, I never know how much real science goes into those things.

Post # 5
Member
1801 posts
Buzzing bee
  • Wedding: June 2010

Some of those are pretty legitimate actually.  But they’re statistics that say you’re a percentage more likely than the general population to get divorced, not that you have a particular percent chance at getting divorced.

I studied this in depth this year through a class I took in my psychology department.  I wrote a big paper on various aspects of relationships that lead to failure v. success.  The variance is pretty wide, so none of this is ever set in stone (other than the actual divorce rate, which is about 50%).

Their explanations are good for the most part.  It’s not the fact that you’re in a particular status, like being the parent of multiples or in a Republican state, but rather the circumstances that surround that particular subgroup of the population, like stress and younger marital ages.

Post # 6
Member
3709 posts
Sugar bee
  • Wedding: May 2011

Some of the stats posted in various articles can be pretty scary. However, I think that the number one reason for divorce is lack of communication about what would lead your SO to want a divorce. I think discussing any potential dealbreakers before hand and having thorough and regular conversation about what you need in a relationship is the best way to prevent divorce.

I still like reading the stats though…it’s a great conversation starter for Fiance and myself.

 

Post # 7
Member
549 posts
Busy bee
  • Wedding: October 2010

Wow some of those things are crazy… I wonder how they really come up with those numbers though….

Post # 8
Member
1801 posts
Buzzing bee
  • Wedding: June 2010

@cecullaton – Generally the people running the studies will post ads or use a database to get couples to sign up for the study.  They’ll usually run a screening (a survey, interview, general demographic requirement, etc) to narrow down their sample.  Then they conduct questionnaires, interviews, self-monitoring/reporting, etc to collect the data, which is usually couples reporting various levels of things like stress, happiness with the relationship, number of arguments, level of intimacy, etc.  Then they run stats programs on the group of participants to find what they say is presumably a representative percentage sample of the general population. 

Sorry, I’m a psychologist who’s had tons of stats and research crammed down the throat.  Embarassed

Post # 9
Member
339 posts
Helper bee
  • Wedding: July 2011

@soonerpsych – don’t apologize! I’m a psych person too (livin in the psych building at grad school; I spend more time here than I do my own apartment lol) who has had the unfortunate experience of stats and research as well Smile and I agree, as ugly as they are, the statistics are fairly accurate.

But I think such research is very good and enlightening for brides-to-be because it shows all of us things that clearly have an affect on a marriage and knowing what we may face in the future can allow all of us to try and prepare for it in our relationships today…I’m a bit obsessed with social psychology & intimate relationships though, so I’m a bit biased.

Post # 10
Member
113 posts
Blushing bee
  • Wedding: August 2010

I like these types of articles because so many people go into a marriage ignoring lots of red flags or decided not to go to pre-maritol counseling sessions. We went to a non-religious pre-maritol counselor and it was great! We didn’t have any major issues, but she did give lots of tips on what to do if we feel we are about to get into an argument (though that has yet to happen. We might get annoyed with each other, but we always solve the issue before it turns into a screaming match).

My friend went into her marriage knowing she hated her Mother-In-Law and just figured she was marrying the man and not his family. Two years later it ended in divorce because after the birth of their child he wanted his mother to babysit and she absolutely refused. It was very sad actually.

Post # 11
Member
10367 posts
Sugar Beekeeper
  • Wedding: September 2010

Interesting article, but it ignores some of the biggest predictors of divorce – age at marriage, education level, socio-economin, etc. Lumping the population into a “divorce rate of 50%” category doesn’t tell you anything. But, for example, i’ve seen this broken down further – it you and your Fiance are over 25, have had no children out of wedlock, both have advanced degrees, and are financially responsible, the divorce rate is in the single digits. SINGLE DIGITS. So, it’s all a matter of teasing stats apart.

Post # 12
Member
1854 posts
Buzzing bee
  • Wedding: December 2009

If you live in Wayne County, Indiana, and are over 15 years old, there’s a 19.2 percent chance that you’ve been divorced.

Tell me that this is phrased wrong!

Post # 13
Member
2410 posts
Buzzing bee
  • Wedding: July 2011

@eqb, that was the thing that stood out to me too!

Post # 14
Member
5496 posts
Bee Keeper
  • Wedding: April 2010

According to the calculator, I have a 6% chance of divorcing as of now. BUT, it didn’t ask if I live in a red or blue state, my hubby’s age (I’m 2 yrs older), if we smoke or not, if I’m a child of divorced parents (I am)…how educated my hubby is..hmmmm… I find it amusing at least.

Post # 15
Member
1046 posts
Bumble bee

Well you know what they say about statistics… they’re 95% made up! haha

I don’t let stuff like that worry me because I feel that divorces occur based on individuals and the work put into a marriage by way of communication, honesty and emotional maturity (no matter what the age) it is a huge factor. However, there are some factors i.e. the smoking thing that I believe hold merit. One smoker married to a non smoker usually ends up with problems, much like an alcoholic married to someone who never drinks. It just makes sense to hold common values! But i also believe that both of these situations fall under the category of communication as well as honesty… before you walk down the isle! I really believe that most crappy marriages could be avoided if people would only be honest with themselves and their partner before they made the huge leap into marriage. Just sayin’…

Post # 16
Member
14186 posts
Honey Beekeeper
  • Wedding: June 2009

Meh, here’s what i say about this stuff:

WHO CARES!!!!

Predictors don’t mean squat in my opinion. I refuse to life my life thinking my chances for divorce are higher because of X factors in my life. Eh.

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