Post # 1
The coronavirus COVID-19 story is as much a story about mathematics as people. In the early stages of a pandemic (yes, we are still in the early stages) the rise is exponential. The way we measure the rate of the exponential rise is by using doubling time. So if a pandemic has a doubling time of 8 days then in eight days time the numbers of cases will have doubled.
I have created a table of the exponential rise of cases in the US and the UK over the next 14 days assuming an 8-day, 7-day, 6-day, 5-day, 4-day, 3-day, 2-dat and 1-day doubling time. There is also a prediction from the current rate for comparison. (Yesterday’s figures divided by the those from the day before gives us the current rate.)
These figures represent what might happen if we were to do nothing and simply let the virus take its course. As you can see from the table if we were to depend on a scientist coming up with an injection to stop the virus then even if they could both invent it and mass-produce it in a month it still wouldn’tbe enough because, in 14 days time the numbers of those infected would be simply too many to mass innoculate.
The answer is to take instructions to self-isolate / socially distance / obey lockdown instructions very seriously indeed.
Here is the table (my apologies, it keeps loading upsidedown):
Post # 2
Here are the calculations for the doubling times
An eight-day doubling time means that every day the number of cases increases by a factor of 1.09051. (Multiply your figure by 1.0951.)
A seven-day doubling time means that every day the number of cases will increase by a factor of 1.10409.
Post # 3
So please do make sure that you take shutdown very seriously. If we do this we will slow the rate down and not overwhelm the health professionals.
The US figures are from Worldmeter at midnight Greenwich meantime on the 22nd and 23rd March.
The UK figures are from the UK government on the 22nd and 23rd March.
All other figures are calculated mathematically.
Post # 4
Meanwhile, our idiot president is telling people they can go back to their jobs and normal routines next week. They need to stop giving him any air time. He’s already gotten one person killed with his lies about medications.
Post # 5
I’m so tired of my friends not taking this seriously. I go to the grocery store and a remote park to hike once in awhile. That’s it. And ever since I started feeling sick I haven’t even done that. The sooner we all do this the better we all will be!
Post # 6
Our fearless leader has always been an idiot who prioritizes the health of the large corporations that make money off the masses. God forbid their bottom line be affected…they might have to pay their CEOs a few million less. As far as the health and well-being of the population itself, well, it really doesnt concern him.
Why cant he get this wretched disease?
Post # 7
I found this article very interesting, especially when it gets to the part about a man from South Africa coming down covid19 while on a plane, after attending a party in the US, exposing everyone on the plane and becoming a primary vector of spread in his own country and internationally. This situation emphasizes how important it is that we take precautions as soon as possible and as carefully as possible in a way that matched the high transmission rate of this virus, and not use lax local restrictions as an excuse to carry on as usual. This a world problem. If we feel our own neighborhood is a place where we don’t have to be on our guard, well that’s how you become the vector in your neighborhood. The fact that people who attended the party and quickly learned they’d been exposed did not self isolate or tell anyone they’d had contact with because they were embarrassed? What the heck,?!
Post # 8
It is ignorance that kills. That and blind stupidity.