(Closed) Extended forecast…how accurate?

posted 5 years ago in Logistics
  • poll: Are long term weather forecasts accurate?
    No. Don't worry, they're not accurate and your day will be fine. : (17 votes)
    77 %
    They're totally accurate. Sucks to be you. : (2 votes)
    9 %
    Other: comment! : (3 votes)
    14 %
  • Post # 16
    Member
    1303 posts
    Bumble bee
    • Wedding: Hawksnest Cove Beach St John USVI

    shawna.darling4:  12 days out my wedding day had 0 percent chance of rain at all. Then it progressively got worse for the weekend. It poured the night before and stopped the morning of. Darling Husband works with meteorologsts and they even told us not to worry until 3 days out at the earliest and 24 hours put it would be the most accurate. Don’t stress yet!!!!

    Post # 17
    Member
    442 posts
    Helper bee
    • Wedding: March 2015 - City, State

    Not accurate at all!! When we looked at the weather 10 days out, it was forecasting 84 degrees, and Darling Husband started freaking out because he hates the heat!  The day before the wedding, it forecasted 73 degrees, and on the actual day the high was 70 degrees and windy!

    I wouldn’t stress about it too much right now, I’m sure your day will be amazing!

    Post # 18
    Member
    321 posts
    Helper bee

    I am a meteorologist….NOT Accurate. The weather prediction models have very little handle on things that far out. The news, and other large weather “companies” put these things out for hype. There is very little accuracy. I wouldn’t worry until maybe 4 or 5 days out. Thats when meteorologists/weather models can do a bit better. Try not to obsess until then! (Side note…I am planning a beach wedding next May…I’ll probably need to remember my own professional advice!)

    Post # 19
    Member
    515 posts
    Busy bee
    • Wedding: December 2014

    Don’t stress! Our long range forecast said 0% chance of rain seven days out, then changed to slight chance of rain in the morning 3 days out, then changed to 100% chance of torrential downpours the day before.

    Forecasts can definitely be wrong.

    It did rain (it poured) on our wedding day, and we were meant to have a garden wedding. Just make sure that you have EVERYTHING in place to move to your plan B. The rain actually made our wedding day more memorable and we got some great pics 🙂

    Bottom line – be prepared and try not to stress – what will be will be. Good luck!

    • This reply was modified 4 years, 7 months ago by  janereaction.
    Post # 20
    Member
    1740 posts
    Bumble bee
    • Wedding: June 2016

    So the nerdy grad student in me is coming out.  But if anyone wants to truly understand why it is so hard to predict the weather more than a couple days out, read “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver.  It’s technically a book about statistics, but it is an awesome read.  You’ll not only learn all about weather forecasting, but also poker, baseball, earthquakes and so much more!  And seriously, I understand the housing bubble / recession better than I ever thought I would thanks to that book.  

    Post # 21
    Member
    3716 posts
    Sugar bee
    • Wedding: November 2014

    I had to make myself stop looking obsessively at the forecast the week of my wedding (which meant checking it once a day as opposed to checking it almost hourly and freaking out). Even the day of my wedding, there was a 70% chance of thunderstorms and it didn’t even rain a drop. Don’t stress about it. If it rains, it rains. Worrying about it won’t change the outcome.

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