I f***** my life up.

posted 4 months ago in Waiting
Post # 61
Member
114 posts
Blushing bee

anabee323 :  Yeah, that’s exactly what you do. 

blondie603 :  I’m also an actual statistician and, while the probability of not getting pregnant is .99 for any given trial (or roll of the die), it’s not .99 for a set of multiple trials. As anabee323 said, you need to multiply them together. It’s a binomial distribution with n=8, p=.01, and q=.99.  

Post # 62
Member
151 posts
Blushing bee
  • Wedding: September 2018

anabee323 :  Yes, that’s exactly how it’s calculated (not by adding the percentages) – the problem is that she started with a 99% number, and with perfect use the pill is MORE than 99% effective. The typical failure rate in studies I’ve seen is around 0.3%. The failure rate over 8 years with perfect use is then less than 3%, which is pretty low.

I get that this is totally irrelevant to the OP – my problem is that this misinformation goes out onto the internet, and unfortunately human nature is that certain people will read it and think, “wow, why am I even bothering with birth control if I have such a high chance of getting pregnant even if I use it correctly?” There is definitely a chance of getting pregnant with perfect use, but I wouldn’t call it a high chance.

Post # 63
Member
1428 posts
Bumble bee

OP, just wanted to reach out and say you did not fuck up. Life is just a series of twists and turns and its how you make of it that matters.

I get your feelings 100%. I am a staunch planner. When stuff doesn’t go according to my “plan” of life, I freak the hell out. However, I have come to realize that it is the times where my plan didn’t pan out exactly as I imagined and I had to adjust that I grew the most as a person. 

That said, now may be the time to seriously broach the subject of marriage with your SO as other posters have suggested. I would ask him when (not if) you two are getting married and then go from there. Take control of the situation. Do not let him be the driver.

Post # 64
Member
1032 posts
Bumble bee

One of my favorite quotes is “Life is what happens to you while you’re busy making other plans” by John Lennon.  

Bee – you did not mess up. You will get through this. And you will see exactly what kind of person your partner is and can be by the way he steps (or fails to do so). But as other PPs have said, this might be the catalyst to make his get off his a$$ and formalize things with you. So it may not be in the order you were anticipating or dreaming of. But it just might be your happy ever after anyway. 

Post # 65
Member
746 posts
Busy bee

hotdoglover :  Well a lot of sources cite the pill as being 99% effective (see planned parenthoodd link below) or more than 99% effective. Assuming it’s 99.7% effective, there is still an approx 2.4% failure rate over 8 years with perfect use. And with typical use (est 93% efficacy) the failure rate is 44% over 8 years. No matter which way you slice it, the perfect use numbers don’t apply to most people, which is why there are typical use numbers out there. For women who are trying to use the pill as well as they possibly can, the error rate will be somewhere between the numbers I’ve thrown out there. The failure rate is a reality, and burying our heads in the sand about it doesn’t do anyone any good. That’s how you get stuck up posters who say “well you wouldn’t have gotten pregnant with perfect contraception use” when that is just not true, especially with typical use of the birth control pill. I’ll say more about that below.

I also feel like you’re getting upset over something that makes no sense. First of all, no one in their right mind would think that a 7-8% chance is “high” IMO. It’s not a “high” chance. The Harvard admissions rate is 5.6%–does that mean that there is a high chance of you getting accepted? No, it means there is a low chance. A 44% chance is pretty high, and should encourage women to use the pill as perfectly as possible or to get a less-prone-to-user-error birth control method such as the arm implant or IUDs, so realistic numbers (aka “typical” error rate) is actually important to know for women who want to do all they can to avoid getting pregnant. More importantly, though, no contraceptive is perfect and the rate of getting pregnant with no birth control at all is obviously higher than the rate of getting pregnant with using the pill either perfectly or typically.

Second of all and really importantly, with a method such as the pill you cannot blindly talk about “perfect use” because there is an inherent, realistic probability of user error with a pill that one has to ingest every day at the same time. That is a reality you are trying to ignore. With typical use, the pill failure rate is 9% or 7% according to the source you use (in this case Planned Parenthood vs the CDC). Typical use encompasses factors such as women missing a pill or not taking it at the same time of day every single day, which IMO an overwhelming majority of pill users do at some point. That winds up being a cited 91% or 93% efficacy of the pill per year with typical use. So with typical use, the error rate is even higher over a number of years.

I don’t know, I guess your thinking is that if we keep this information from people it’s best for them because they’ll blindly believe that with taking birth control they’ll never get pregnant and therefore will take it? I’m sorry, I just can’t agree with that. I’m a big believer in educating people, which includes letting them know uncomfortable information.

I feel really bad to derail the OP’s thread so this is the last thing I’ll say on this, but I have felt like the ganging up on this thread of the PP whose number was actually pretty okay (though her methods were not, clearly) has been ridiculous.

https://www.cdc.gov/reproductivehealth/contraception/index.htm

https://www.plannedparenthood.org/learn/birth-control/birth-control-pill/how-effective-is-the-birth-control-pill

Post # 66
Member
6626 posts
Bee Keeper
  • Wedding: April 2016

anabee323 :  I don’t know if OP is coming back or not, and I do find what you’re talking about really interesting, but I suggest instead of further derailing this post that you open a new thread maybe to discuss this. We don’t even know if OP used BC or not and OP is already pregnant so all this debating is a moot point for her. The point of this post is that OP needed help and support through a difficult time. Debating statistics back and forth and back and forth is not going to help her. 

OP, I’m sorry. It sounds like now you feel trapped but please listen to PPs. Your life is not over. You are not trapped. You will still have a future, it might just be a bit different than you imagined it. You have choices. Please know that we are here for you! 

Post # 67
Member
923 posts
Busy bee
  • Wedding: May 2018

I agree with the PP how did the post become about who can do better math and who knows more about Bc then helping a bre in a difficult time ???

 

As for the Op

1) decide if you want to be with you bf

2) if you do then you can still get married have the big party and honeymoon just not right now 

3) if you don’t want to be with him make a plan and go

Having a baby does put the plans off a bit but doesn’t stop you from marrying a person you WANT to marry and having your dream wedding and honeymoon. 

Post # 68
Member
5968 posts
Bee Keeper

llevinso :  We don’t even know if OP used BC or not and OP is already pregnant so all this debating is a moot point for her.

i think it came up because a lot of bees were saying “so irresponsible! Use BC if you dont want a baby” and someone else said “BC isnt perfect and you can still get preggo on it”. Then we decended into math-land. 

Post # 69
Member
6626 posts
Bee Keeper
  • Wedding: April 2016

jellybellynelly :  I see HOW it came up…there’s just no point in continuing to talk about it. My point is none of these BC and statistical discussions matter right now as far as the OP is concerned. 

Post # 70
Member
1160 posts
Bumble bee
  • Wedding: September 2011

notsosoontobe :  The situation you’re in sounds like a hard place to be. It’s always hard to be in a relationship where you want to move forward, but your partner isn’t on the same page. In addition to that, your pregnancy may be making you emotional as well. I’m not trying to blame you or anything, just give some recognition to the fact that you may be more emotional than usual due to circumstances not in your control. 

It’s important to recognize, though that you still have a lot of possibilities ahead of you.

It seems like there are some redeeming qualities in your boyfriend, or you would have broken up with him already. Talk to him about marriage and see what he says. His response might surprise you. (Maybe this thread about the benefits of marriage could help you in the discussion: https://boards.weddingbee.com/topic/benefits-of-marriage-2/ )

Having a baby also does not preclude you from getting married or having a honeymoon. Plenty of people get pregnant, get married, and go on a honeymoon. Or have a baby, get married, go on honeymoon. It’s not the order that you wanted, but you can still have everything you want if your boyfriend is on board.

It also seems good that he’s excited about being a dad. Even if things turn out the worst they could possibly be, ex. you guys break up and have to co-parent, you should be able to do it successfully. Lots of people do. Lots of single moms find love and marriage after a failed relationship. It’s not all doom and gloom.

I also saw that you said that due to your endometriosis, you will keep the baby. It’s great that you have made the decision that is best for you. Not that it matters (since everyone is different), but as someone diagnosed with endo and PCOS, I know how difficult infertility is and I completely understand what you are saying. I am assuming that you want to be a mom due to this.

What I want to add to this, though, is that getting pregnant is never guaranteed. I know that this situation isn’t how you wanted things to happen. However, if you left your boyfriend and found someone else to be with, it’s not guaranteed that you would ever get pregnant again. You have said this is part of your decision-making process, but I’m repeating it to reframe your thoughts. It’s not an ideal situation, but if you want to be a mom, it’s better that it happen now than never. See this as an opportunity to have a child and be a mom, which is what it is.

Being a mom won’t prevent you from getting married or finding a new partner.

I do want to note that I’m pro-choice and I don’t believe in the “things work out the way they are supposed to” stuff, so I don’t have either of those things as motives in my perspective. My perspective is purely from my logic and also my own experience.

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