(Closed) please help me come up with a formula to estimate what percent will rsvp yes!

posted 7 years ago in Reception
Post # 3
Member
204 posts
Helper bee
  • Wedding: June 2011

I don’t know about all the stuff about how far they had to travel etc, but we invited 207 and only 132 are coming which was like a 37% decline rate….that seems high to me, I’ve heard more in the 20-25% decline rate Not sure if that helps, but that’s what ours was.

Post # 4
Member
6572 posts
Bee Keeper
  • Wedding: February 2010

We invited 145, 95 RSVPed yes.

-75% had to drive less then an hour, the rest had to get on a plane.

But I also think it had to do with the day, it was on a Sunday. And only 30 people were invited to the ceremony, so a lot of Out of Town people weren’t going to fly all the way here just for a dinner.

Post # 5
Member
2600 posts
Sugar bee
  • Wedding: June 2011

I have to say, I’ve been a wedding planner for years and it’s ALWAYS different!  But… here is mine (estimating the responses we’ve yet to receive:

  • 202 Total Invites
  • 124 total yes
  • 51 less than an hour
  • 56 1-3 hours
  • 15 3+ hours
  • 2 flying in

 

Post # 6
Member
2580 posts
Sugar bee
  • Wedding: November 1999

I posted the other day that I realized that more than half of our invites were going to out of state guests, so it is sort of reassuring to see people’s numbers in similar situation. We still have 4 months until invites will go out, but we just sent our save the dates to something like 220.

About 50 live within an hour, 50 within 3-4 hours. The rest are all out of state! I think we will probably end up with a fair amount of declines, especially because my parents are hosting another reception in their hometown (I doubt most of their guests would come to both!)

Post # 7
Member
7587 posts
Bumble Beekeeper
  • Wedding: December 2010

So I had 20% of people not show. Right with the standard estimates. What’s funny is, that the farther the guest got away the higher percentage that showed up. Although that represents less people.

Total invites 132

106 attended

less than an hour 32 guests 68% attendance to invites

1-3 hours 37 guests 82% attendance to invites

3+ hours 22 – 91% attendance to invites

flying in 15 – 93% attendance to invites

 

Post # 9
Member
36 posts
Newbee
  • Wedding: October 2011

@red_rose: 

thanks so much for posting – i’ve been wondering about this too – my fiance’s familiy is all from out of state – but my HUGE family is pretty much all in state… we are inviting around 260 people and did not send a save the date, we plan to send out invitations on the early side (Mid July?) – any one else in a similar situation? no idea how many people to expect. 

Also – what have you all experienced as far as inviting people with a +1 as a courtesy even when they’re not in a relationship – do people usually bring a date or RSVP for just themselves????

Post # 9
Member
36 posts
Newbee
  • Wedding: October 2011

sorry posted twice and cant figure out how to delete! woops!

Post # 10
Member
5093 posts
Bee Keeper
  • Wedding: January 2012

This would help us a bunch, too.  I believe over half our guest list will have to fly in, and about 25 of those would come in from other continents, so the whole passport thing throws another hoop into the obstacle course.  I would love to get a good idea of the numbers.

I had one planner tell me that 25% attrition rate is normal, but it jumps to about 50% for out-of-town guests.  Or course, I don’t know what her definition of out-of-town was…  Did she mean the people who would drive two or three hours?  Or did she mean the people flying in from out of state?  Or did she mean my foreign guests?  I *know* that the attrition rate is going to rise as people get further and further away, so I would love to know what to expect for my out-of-state guests.  I just kind of expect that almost none of my foreign guests will make it.

Post # 11
Member
542 posts
Busy bee
  • Wedding: October 2011

The math nerd in me loves this thread. Sorry I don’t have numbers yet for you, but I will be following.

Although, there are a lot of factors that could also affect attendance:  Is it a dw for most people? If so, how desirable is the location? Time of year/season/holiday? Day/date of wedding (how popular, kids in or out of school)? Distribution of guest list (mostly family, mostly young 20-somethings, mostly couples w/ kids)?

Not trying to poke holes, just giving you some text for your disclaimer and the fine print 🙂

 

Post # 15
Member
9029 posts
Buzzing Beekeeper
  • Wedding: June 2011

i think its different for each couple and depends how many of your guests are family versus friends and how many of them are old versus young. Family and older guests tend to make the effort to come regardless of distance. Friends and younger guests are more likely to rsvp no if they are far away.

 

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