Post # 1
My brother just got engaged (he lives in Illinois). He and his new fiancée are currently deciding when to plan their traditional big wedding. They are currently leaning toward July 2021. Do you think there will be a widely available COVID vaccine/effective treatment/significantly reduced transmission by July 2021 that would allow for no more COVID restrictions (max alllowable gatherings and mask-wearing)? In Illinois, gatherings of 50 will be the max allowable until vaccine/successful treatment/no new cases.
Just your opinion/explanation of what you would do would be helpful (especially if you are hoping to get married in July ’21). Also, if you have links to any research articles about expert opinions regarding vaccine/treatment trajectory that would also be very helpful. Thanks!
Post # 2
I think it will be tricky to predict since it’s not just about the vaccine, it’s about who’s willing to get it. If it’s like the flu vaccine, then are certain populations (the immunocompromised/infants) that are not able to get the regular weakened pathogen vaccine and may not be able to afford the antibody vaccine, so they rely on herd immunity. If there is an effective vaccine, the trajectory and severity of the disease should decrease, but like with many diseases like measles, it’s not down to zero.
(I’m not an expert, just a gal with a Biochemistry and Cell Bio degree)
Post # 3
Don’t put any money down that you can’t get back is my advice. We have no idea what a year will look like from now.
Post # 4
I really hope so. I think there will be a vaccine and I think people will have access to it… but I think there will be many morons who refuse to get it. I voted maybe because I’m hoping proof of vaccination will become almost mandatory to do the things people want to do (go back to work, send your kid to camp, etc.). If forced between yes and no, I would guess yes, the wedding will be okay to go forward.
Post # 5
- Wedding: April 2021 - Chicago, IL
Well I sure hope so! I’m in IL also, and we’re still hoping for our <100 wedding for April 2021. If not, we are postponing till fall 2021. Hopefully all will be much more calm come next July!
Post # 6
I voted “maybe” but that said, I don’t know that a vaccine will be widely distributed by then or even that it will prove effective in all demographics, for how long, or without serious side effects in a larger population sample. I’d prefer to err on the side of caution and would not book anything that you can’t get fully refunded.
Personally, due to the uncertainty and the direction this thing is going, if it was me I’d get married now and have a delayed reception when this whole mess is over, whenever that might be. I wouldn’t plan any thing now.
Post # 7
I think that’s what I will advise them (get married in court/church now, then wait for the big reception until 2022). It seems too risky to get stuck with possibly losing venue or vendor deposits if they end up having to postpone.
Thanks everyone for your insights! Sending my love and support to any of you with a wedding next year facing uncertainty (especially those of you who have already had to postpone once or twice). Fingers crossed that COVID doesn’t interfere with next summer’s weddings!
Post # 8
From the way things are going right now, I doubt it. Obviously, I don’t know this for a fact but I say I’m about 75% thinking that there will still be no vaccine. We had all these hopes during spring that warm weather will slow corona by summer because of the heat but look at the US infection rates, it’s worse than ever. And many people are just getting too laxed or just stopped caring. By the way, does anyone know what happened to those vaccine volunteers that were given trial shots in the spring?
Post # 9
They are already expecting major shortages in the supply chain when it comes to things like glass vials and needles. There’s close to no chance they’ll have created and tested a vaccine, packaged it, distributed it, and injected in ~210 million Americans (the level of coverage estimated before transmission rates go down) in the next 12 months.
Post # 10
Even if we have a vaccine in late winter or early spring, there may be issues discovered with it after that point. While drug-makers do everything possible to find those things out during clinical trials, it is always possible to miss something that isn’t apparent greater numbers of doses are administered. Unlikely? Perhaps, but I guess because there are no guarantees, I wouldn’t invest a whole lot of money in something I couldn’t be sure of. No one can know at this point.
Post # 11
I doubt it myself but only time will tell.
You also have to factor in not just a working vaccine being created but people being willing to actually take the vaccine which looks not great.
Post # 13
I’m hoping for my BIL’s sake that their July 2021 wedding turns out as planned but I can see it being a no go if we get a second wave.
Post # 14
From talking to my dad, who is a virologist, he is pretty confident we will have at least a semi-effective vaccine by early 2021. The wild cards are 1) production/supply chain and 2) participation. So many people don’t bother getting the flu shot, I’m pretty concerned we will see a low level of people who get the COVID vaccine – and since it’s unlikely to be one of our more effective vaccines, that puts even those of us responsible enough to get it at risk.
Post # 15
I agree. I’m most interested in learning overall public sentiment, especially among people who are thinking of getting married next year. I’m curious if people are all planning on 2022 weddings or if many are still moving forward with 2021 planning. All the weddings I was supposed to attend this year have been rescheduled for 2021, so it seems like these people believe the weddings will be able to take place then (though perhaps it’s all just wishful thinking).
According to a BBC article from a week or so ago: “Most experts think a vaccine is likely to become widely available by mid-2021, about 12-18 months after the new virus, known officially as Sars-CoV-2, first emerged.”