Will July 2021 be "safe" for 150+ person weddings?

posted 5 days ago in Engagement
  • poll: Do you think July 2021 weddings will be safe from COVID impact?

    Yes, I think there will be a vaccine/effective treatment by then.

    Yes and no. There might be a vaccine, but it won't be widely available.

    Maybe. I'm very undecided and think it could go either way.

    No, I do not think there will be a vaccine/effective treatment by then.

  • Post # 17
    Member
    965 posts
    Busy bee
    • Wedding: September 2016

    We will just have to wait and see as it get closer, I would for sure be hesitant about deposits unless they had a generous cancellation/rescheduling option. 
    I am supposed to be in a wedding July 2021– 200 people… bachelorette party in a different state so flying would be required… and it’s hard to know for sure but I hope that we have a vaccine and that there are little to no cases! 

    Post # 18
    Member
    1091 posts
    Bumble bee
    • Wedding: August 2019

    So, I do actually feel pretty confident that we’ll have a vaccine within the next 6 months. I’ve been reading a lot about it, and several of the trials are pretty far along (thanks to previous vaccine research on other SARS viruses), and the Oxford vaccine trial is especially promising. We’re talking highly effective with minimal side effects in trials of several thousand people. So, the news re: vaccine is VERY good right now. 

    That being said, I wouldn’t put money on a wedding (or really, any other event), so I didn’t vote. I’m alarmed at how many people lack basic understanding of how vaccines work, and worry that the current anti-vax sentiments that are currently mostly fringe will continue to gain traction…after all, how many people ALREADY refuse to get the flu vaccine? 

    There’s also the issue of supply chain, which would be compounded if it turns out we’d need a booster shot 3-6 months after the first. 

    So…I hope weddings can happen next July. But I’m not a betting gal. 

    Post # 19
    Member
    7462 posts
    Busy Beekeeper
    • Wedding: February 1997

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    @dianaj17:  I agree that the scariest part (besides the idiocy we’re currently seeing in terms of social distancing) is the fringe views, both on Covid and on vaccines in general. My own mother will not get a flu shot because once, 30 years ago, she got sick after having one. For many years she was a teacher and exposed to everything, so she never got sick, but she has now been retired for quite a while. She doesn’t have the immunity she once did. She absolutely believes Covid is real and is taking every possible precaution, but I don’t know if she would get vaccinated. It’s frustrating. But newer evidence is pointing to the idea that flu vaccines might help lower the risk of alzheimer’s, so maybe I’ll try talking her into it that way.

    Post # 20
    Member
    282 posts
    Helper bee

    So not only am I a virologist, but I am a person at the end of their doctorate in coronaviruses. My lab is one of the ones that published on remdesivir (Cell Reports) and the Moderna vaccine (New England Journal of Medicine). Personally I have worked with the virus and have an upcoming publication available on coronavirus recombination (bioRxiv). I mention all of this because my experience is when I say anything, everybody is suddenly and expert or related to one and I am currently not. Here. For. It.

    Our vaccine program is currently testing phase 2 moderna samples in addition to other vaccine candidates. A colleague informed is that Moderna has ordered 300 million doses of vaccine to be available by January 2021. This bodes well, even if the vaccine doesn’t have optimal effectiveness! At this point, the Moderna vaccine is effective, and that will be fully explored through these next phases of clinical trials. There is an effective treatment, it’s remdesivir. We are working on getting one that doesn’t require IV administration. That one could be EIDD 1931/2801 (NHC), which is currently in clinical trials and has been effective against every tested coronavirus.

    coming from the front line, we are doing everything in our power to get to where life can go back to normal. If I see any of you say that we are in the pocket of big pharma, that the treatments and vaccines are not being properly tested, or that the Moderna vaccine targets the “wrong” part of the virus (thanks, Facebook dude, you’ve further destroyed my faith in humanity), I will want to come through the phone and personally yell at you. I won’t, but the feeling is there. I will, however, be happy to answer any questions (as long as they don’t try to be the smug, “see, this is all a hoax and I just PROVED it with my galaxy brain and 14 college credits).

    We are hopeful the tremendous effort will be fruitful and that we can help millions of people. We are doing the best we can, so don’t plan anything non-refundable. And you please know we’ve had all the hell you’ve had and have been working 80+ hours a week, 7 days a week since February. I don’t know if it makes you feel better, but we won’t stop until we’ve done it, even though these past 6 months have been torturous.

    Post # 21
    Member
    10544 posts
    Sugar Beekeeper
    • Wedding: City, State

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    @bluecandy:  Very cool! Thank you for all that you and your colleagues are doing. How do you feel about the other “treatments” (I use that term extremely loosely) that are being spread around? I work in healthcare so I know the opinion of my doctor colleagues but I wonder what your take is (and if it will help me shut up people in my life who also have 14 college credits and an active FB) 

    Post # 22
    Member
    282 posts
    Helper bee

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    @slomotion:  by your quotation marks, I am assuming you are referring to my nemesis, hydroxychloroquine (and all combos including this dumb drug). It doesn’t work! We’ve done the experiments dozens of times and it actually increases the amount of virus present. The biology of how the drug works doesn’t make sense for coronavirus infections, but we still did the tests. I feel that there is a… political element to these treatments that certain groups want to push. The White House and HHS are absolutely not good sources of info for literally anybody. I’d only trust Tony Fauci and Deb Birx, as they are not political appointees and have pushed science, not what is wished for. For example, the day Oxford published a report of their vaccine going to trial, the White House called up the director of our research program demanding data… from samples that haven’t been delivered to us yet.

    Remdesivir and EIDD 1931/2801 are the only ones that are known to have effectiveness against other coronaviruses both in experiments and in infection. They are the ones that will likely emerge “victorious,” and in fact, remdesivir already is. Hydroxychloroquine can go die in a ditch. Plus it has severe psychological side effects, so idk why everyone is so eager to take it!

    Post # 23
    Member
    385 posts
    Helper bee
    • Wedding: June 2021

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    @bluecandy:  wow thank you so much for responding! It’s great to see information from someone knowledgeable in plain English! 

    Can I ask…is remdesivir in common use? Is that why despite cases climbing, there doesn’t seem to be as many deaths compared to what NY when through in March/April/May?

    Post # 24
    Member
    10544 posts
    Sugar Beekeeper
    • Wedding: City, State

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    @bluecandy:  Thank you! That definitely gives me some more talking points to discourage people in my life from A) taking it and B) spreading harmful medical advice. 

    Post # 25
    Member
    78 posts
    Worker bee

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    @chyangra:  no one can possibly know the answer! I don’t think covid is going to go away for a long time, but I think we may figure out a better way to function in a manner closer to “normal” life with it, so while I think covid won’t go away, we may develop better ways to hold larger gatherings in a more safe manner.

    Being locked up forever is not the solution. 

    Being in a state that peaked early (NJ) that was super strict about lockdown, things have been slowly reopening and we are seeingthat we CAN function safely with covid and cases generally are staying low. This means temperature checks before you enter your office building, staggering employees, implementing additional cleaning measures and clear screens at salons, installing better air filtration systems in buildings, etc. Masks are a given.

    I do think those measures will become more.prominent and advanced. A doctor in new York recently invented a rapid test whcih gives results in 30 minutes based on a spit sample. If that test could somehow get mass produced cheaply, it could be distributed to all of the guests prior to a large event.

    I also think there will be some.kind of vaccine by the end of the year. I don’t think the CDC would be saying that if it wasn’t true since they tend to underpromise rather than overpromise. TBD if it will be largely available and if people will even take it.

    To answer your question, as long as he knows the cancellation/rescheduling policy and is ok with it, I would do the same thing as him. At some point we need to be hopeful that this thing is going to get figured out and need to get back to living our lives.

    It started in March; we’ve only been in it for four months (through it seems like an eternity). I have to have enough faith in our country to think we will figure something out in a year.

     

    Post # 26
    Member
    282 posts
    Helper bee

    View original reply
    @nattywed:  it is in its expanded use program right now, and they’ve been producing more and more of it since March. So if you were to need it, your doctor/hospital would have a standard phone call to get it. And the reason there seems to be less death is that the age of new infections is much lower now. Those people are less likely to die but still develop disturbing long term effects such as lung and kidney damage and potentially even nervous system issues. That’s why you see the responsible public figures pleading with 18-30 year olds to stay home. In addition, the virus has now acquired new mutations that are thought to make it more infectious, so that’s why there is so much concern about going back to school. If a 10 year old gets it, they likely will not die, but they could have lifelong complications, like asthma or lung issues, and could transmit to a population more at risk for severe disease and death.

    edited to add: yes, remdesivir is standard care right now in most places. Unfortunately, doctors do have the right to choose other options like hydroxychloroquine and I have heard of doctors being… shall we say, belligerent. At Vanderbilt University (I’ve exposed my identity already and I really don’t care, I stand by my work and my lab), we’ve had ACTUAL neuroscientists claiming one the beginning of the pandemic it “wasn’t that bad” and people were just “overreacting.” But your average doctor has enough brains to follow NIAID and CDC guidelines. The only problem with remdesivir is that you have to get it through an IV, which means you have to be in a healthcare setting. A pill would be the best, which is where EIDD 1931/2801 comes in!

     

     If we can wear masks and practice social distancing, we can stop the spread in younger populations and really get a handle on limiting the cases.

    Post # 27
    Member
    6 posts
    Newbee
    • Wedding: October 2021

    I hope all of you who are positive about next year are right! We are planning to get married Oct 2021 and tbh I am worried it will not go ahead and we will need to have a much smaller wedding. I wouldn’t want to wait any longer to get married so we will still use our venue and date if that’s the case. 

    Post # 28
    Member
    1774 posts
    Buzzing bee
    • Wedding: May 2019 - City, State

    From a purely psychological perspective – I would not attend. I don’t see myself being comfortable with large gatherings for a long time. Even if I logically know they are “safe” my anxiety will not let me enjoy myself. I don’t think I’m alone in that line of thinking either, so if it is safe by then, don’t be disheartened if there are more RSVPs declining than you would otherwise expect. 

    Post # 30
    Member
    4226 posts
    Honey bee

    View original reply
    @bluecandy:  Is there a published source re increasing the amount of virus? It would be helpful in convincing a family member.

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